Mortality-related Factors in Patients with Malignant Obstructive Jaundice

Juferdy Kurniawan, Irsan Hasan, Rino Alvani Gani, Marcellus Simadibrata

Abstract


Aim: to obtain survival rate and mortality-related factors of malignant obstructive jaundice patients. Methods: all medical records of obstructive jaundice inpatient at Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital, Jakarta from January 2010 to December 2013 were reviewed retrospectively. The following factors were analyzed in terms of mortality: age, gender, sepsis, hypoalbumin, serum bilirubin level, serum CA 19-9 level, billiary drainage, non-ampulla Vateri carcinoma, and comorbid factors. Results: total 181 out of 402 patients were enrolled in this study with male proportion was 58.6%, and patients aged 50 years or above was 57.5%. Multivariate analysis showed that only sepsis, unsuccessful or no prior biliary drainage and Charlson comorbid score ≥4 were independent predictors of mortality. Patients with significant prognostic factors had median survival 14 days compared with overall median survival 26 days. Score ≥2 identified as the highest prognostic score threshold with sensitivity 68%, specificity 75%, and AUC on ROC curve 0.769. Conclusion: sepsis, unsuccessful or no prior bilirary drainage, and Charlson comorbid score ≥4 are factors significantly associated with shortened survival in malignant obstructive jaundice patients. Prognostic score  ≥2 was determined to classify patients into high risk mortality group. Mortality of patients with those significant prognostic factors can be predicted in 76.9%.

Keywords


malignant obstructive jaundice; survival; mortality; prognostic factors; prognostic score

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